AFP Photo.
The inflationary effects of the conflict in the Middle East, which began on Feb. 28 when the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, are becoming increasingly evident.
In Türkiye, fertilizer prices have surged between 8 percent and 55 percent since the conflict began, raising concerns that fruit prices in particular will climb in the coming months.
According to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), domestic food inflation in March was 1.8 percent month-on-month. In the month, the consumer price index advanced 1.94 percent, while the annual inflation rate slowed from 31.53 percent in February to 30.87 percent last month.
Meanwhile, the Hormuz crisis pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel, driving transportation costs higher. TÜİK figures show that monthly transportation inflation accelerated from 2.58 percent in February to 4.52 percent in March, largely due to geopolitical pressures.
The impact of the war extends beyond energy. Fertilizer and other agricultural input costs have risen sharply, contributing to a global food price increase.
The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported that global food prices rose 2.4 percent in March, compared to 0.9 percent in February, marking the fastest rise in months.
FAO highlighted that the main drivers were energy-related pressures on vegetable oil and sugar prices. In March, compared to February, global meat prices rose 1 percent, dairy 1.2 percent, cereals 1.5 percent, vegetable oils 5.1 percent and sugar 7.2 percent — with sugar reaching its highest level since November 2025.
The Turkish Union of Chambers of Agriculture (TZOB) confirmed that fertilizer prices spiked domestically after the war began on February 28, underscoring the likely pass-through effect on food costs. Analysts warn that rising input costs will soon be reflected in fruit and other food prices across Türkiye.
In a move to weather the impact of surging costs, the Turkish government last week adjusted customs duties on fertilizer imports.
A Presidential Decree published in the Official Gazette announced new tariff rates for various fertilizer categories, particularly nitrogen-based fertilizers and mineral or compound fertilizers. Under the new regulation, customs duties on ammonium sulfate, ammonium nitrate, calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) and diammonium phosphate (DAP) have been reduced to zero, while certain other product groups will face tariffs of 6.5 percent.
This move is expected to directly impact costs, given Türkiye’s heavy reliance on imported chemical fertilizers.
