64 pct chance of Istanbul quake to hit before 2030: Expert
As part of the “Earthquake Week” activities, Istanbul’s Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute organized a conference to create awareness of quakes on March 2.
Haluk Özener, the head of the institute, was the first expert to speak. “We do not know if the time for the expected Marmara earthquake has come,” he said. “Yes, there is an accumulation of energy in the fault line. But we do not know when that will happen.”
“The more energy accumulated in the fault lines means the higher magnitude the earthquake will be. But there is no need to give a date,” he said, making only one estimation about the expected “Marmara earthquake.”
Özener noted that research made by a group that he is involved in too showed that it will be a magnitude 7.2 earthquake.
The other participant of the conference was Doğan Kalafat, a professor from the institute, who expressed statistics showing the percentages of a probable earthquake in Istanbul.
“The likelihood of a magnitude 7 tremor in Istanbul before 2030 is 64 percent. It is 75 before 2050 and 95 before 2090,” he listed.
Reminding that knowing the exact time of an earthquake is impossible, Kalafat made a call to the public to be conscious of tremors.
“We need to work to minimize damages the earthquake will make,” he added.