Türkiye’s fertility rate hits new low amid gov’t incentives
ANKARA
Türkiye’s fertility rate dropped to a historic low of 1.48 in 2024, continuing a decade-long downward trend and falling well below the population replacement level of 2.10, according to the figures published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) on May 13.
The fertility rate corresponds to a key measure showing the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years, typically between the ages of 15 and 49.
This figure marks a significant yet steady demographic shift for the country, where the fertility rate was 2.38 in 2001 but has steadily declined since 2014, plummeting to 1.51 in 2023.
The total fertility rate in Türkiye has remained below 2.10, the threshold at which a population maintains equilibrium without shrinking, for the past eight years.
Last year, the number of live births stood at 937,559.
In an attempt to reverse the trend and encourage larger families, the Turkish government launched a new child allowance program this year as part of its declaration of the year as the “Year of the Family.”
The initiative includes a one-time payment of 5,000 Turkish Liras ($128) for the first child, monthly payments of 1,500 Turkish Liras ($38) for the second child until age five, and 5,000 liras per month for the third and subsequent children.
While the financial aid has been welcomed, experts caution that it may not be enough on its own to raise fertility rates.
Professor Mehmet Ali Eryurt from the Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies noted that while economic support is a step in the right direction, more targeted and diversified policies are necessary.
Because population groups are heterogeneous, their needs and motivations differ, Eryurt noted, urging more effective strategies, including policies that support work-life balance and address the specific needs of different family structures.
TÜİK’s data shows that 71 of the country’s 81 provinces had fertility rates below 2.10 in 2024, up from 57 provinces in 2017. Even more striking, the number of provinces with fertility rates below 1.50 rose from 4 in 2017 to 55 in 2024.
Regional differences remained stark, echoing the expert’s call for diversified policies to curb low birth rates.
The southeastern province of Şanlıurfa had the highest fertility rate at 3.28, followed by two other southeastern cities of Şırnak and Mardin at 2.62 and 2.32, respectively.
At the other end of the spectrum, the northern city of Bartın and the central province of Eskişehir recorded the lowest rates at 1.12, while the northern city of Zonguldak and the capital Ankara followed at 1.15.
Only Şanlıurfa maintained a fertility rate of 3.0 or higher.
Educational background and residential setting played a significant role. Women with no formal education or who were literate but had not completed school had the highest fertility rate at 2.65 in 2024.
By contrast, university graduates had the lowest at 1.22.
Türkiye’s 2024 fertility rate places it both above and near the European Union average of 1.38. Among EU countries, Bulgaria had the highest fertility rate in 2023 at 1.81, while Türkiye ranks ninth in comparison out of 27 nations with last year’s fertility rate of 1.48.
