Türkiye's energy bill burden to ease with declining oil prices: Experts

ISTANBUL-Anadolu Agency

Oil prices have plunged after U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, raising fears of a global trade war but offering relief to energy importers like Türkiye, analysts told state-run Anadolu Agency.

On April 2, Washington imposed 10 percent tariffs on goods from trading partners, pushing Brent crude down 9.1 percent to $65.74 per barrel, the lowest weekly close since August 2021. WTI crude fell 9.8 percent to $62.10.

China’s retaliation drove Brent to $58.22 on April 9, a four-year low, before a 6.7 percent rebound to $65.47 after a 90-day U.S. tariff pause. Brent ended at $64.26, down 2.2 percent and WTI at $60.97, down 1.8 percent.

Brent rose 4.2 percent to $66.96 the next week, lifted by Iran sanction threats, but fell 1.6 percent to $65.87 by April 21 amid U.S.-Iran talks and trade war concerns.

WTI dropped 1.2 percent to $62.93. Since April 2, Brent lost 10.5 percent ($7.80) and WTI 10.7 percent ($7.60).

Fereydoun Barkeshli of Vienna Energy Research Group said lower prices will cut Türkiye’s energy bill, though a global slowdown could hurt growth.

“Trump’s trade war signals a new economic order, but Türkiye is safe for now,” he said, eyeing regionalized trade and less dollar reliance.

Kpler’s Homayoun Falakshahi tied price drops to weaker growth, cutting U.S. forecasts from 2 percent to 0.8 percent and Brent’s 12-month average from $71 to $66.

Türkiye, importing 58,000 barrels daily, benefits from lower costs and a weaker dollar, despite lira depreciation.

Falakshahi noted weaker petroleum demand, cut from 750,000 to 500,000 barrels per day. U.S. shale oil faces pressure, with a $65 breakeven price.

“At $60 for months, production could drop 300,000 barrels daily by year-end,” he said.