As the summer season approaches under the cloud of ongoing conflict, Türkiye’s tourism industry is striving to maintain optimism.
Despite global uncertainty, the country continues to increase its share of international travel, with stakeholders in both the public and private sectors closely monitoring developments and responding swiftly to shifts in demand from key markets.
The recent escalation — sparked by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliation — has cast the greatest concern over the global travel market. While international tourism was expected to grow by 4–5 percent in 2026, the instability in the Middle East is prompting travelers to reconsider plans and routes.
Türkiye, a strong player in the Mediterranean tourism basin, remains attractive to visitors, but widespread unease and disruptions in flight routes are limiting mobility. Hoteliers in Antalya report that the anticipated surge in April and May is unlikely, though they remain hopeful for the second half of the year. Reservations have slowed compared to pre-war levels, with some cancellations already occurring.
Professional Hotel Managers Association President Hakan Saatçioğlu noted, “Tourism quickly returns to normal once there is a resolution or positive news. Before the war, reservations were strong. Now they are very limited. Expectations for April and May are low, but we are optimistic about the rest of the year.”
Özgen Uysal, head of the Western Mediterranean Regional Board of the Association of Turkish Travel Agencies, emphasized that uncertainty prolongs recovery: “We remain hopeful, but only if the process ends in the short term. Otherwise, the impact will be negative. Europe has turned inward, but Russian demand is rising. We are also seeing interest from Russians traveling through the Gulf to Asia.”
The greatest contraction in global tourism is expected around the GCC countries — the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait. Three major challenges stand out: The collapse of the region’s “safe” tourism chain built to diversify oil-dependent economies; the sharp decline in transfer passengers, as the region accounts for nearly 15 percent of Asia-bound connections; and the absence of high-spending travelers from the Gulf, whose reduced presence could erode revenues more than anticipated.
The war in Iran is estimated to be costing the travel and tourism sector $600 million per day. According to Oxford Economics, if hostilities persist, the region could lose $60 billion in tourism revenue. The Middle East, a vital hub handling about 15 percent of global international transit traffic, faces ripple effects that are already reducing flows into Asia-Pacific destinations.
