Markets will closely watch February inflation data this week and the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting later in March.
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) will release the crucial Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on March 3.
Economists participating in the AA Finans survey forecast that the CPI rose by 2.87 percent month-on-month in February. The survey showed expectations ranging between 2.3 percent and 3.39 percent. Based on the average forecast of 2.87 percent, annual inflation — recorded at 30.65 percent in January — is expected to climb to 31.42 percent in February.
Meanwhile, economists’ average inflation expectation for the end of 2026 stood at 24.16 percent.
After the release of inflation data, attention will turn to the Central Bank. The MPC will hold its second rate-setting meeting of 2026 on March 12.
On Jan. 22, the bank lowered the one-week repo auction rate from 38 percent to 37 percent, a smaller cut than the 150-basis-point reduction most economists had anticipated. In December 2025, the bank had cut the main interest rate by 150 basis points.
“We will maintain our tight monetary policy stance to achieve our interim targets,” Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan emphasized on Feb. 13 while presenting the bank’s inflation report.
He noted that the cautious stance — kept in place until price stability is achieved — will reinforce the disinflation process through demand, exchange rate and expectation channels.
According to the report, the bank projects inflation to fall within the range of 15 to 21 percent by the end of 2026 and then further decline to 6 to 12 percent by the end of 2027.
It maintained interim targets of 16 percent for 2026 and 9 percent for 2027, while setting a target of 8 percent for 2028.
