German economy shrinks in quarter
WIESBADEN - Reuters
An employee of the Daimler assembles a door of a car at a plant in Sindelfingen. AP photoGermany showed first signs of feeling the pain from the eurozone’s debt crisis as the economy shrank in the last three month of 2011, despite outperforming its peers for main part of the year thanks to strong domestic demand and exports.
Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 3.0 percent in 2011, preliminary Federal Statistics Office data showed yesterday, below the previous year’s growth rate of 3.7 percent – the fastest since reunification -- and in line with a Reuters poll estimate.
But GDP contracted by around 0.25 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, an official from the Statistics Office added.
“Germany cannot isolate itself so easily from tensions within the euro zone. In addition the export sector is facing a difficult period given the fall in global demand,” said Joerg Zeuner, chief economist at VP Bank.
“Another quarter of contraction and thereby a technical recession are distinctly possible. However if there is no further escalation in the euro zone debt crisis the German economy should still grow in 2012, albeit at a moderate 0.5 percent,” he added.
Germany’s export-driven economy recovered quickly from the 2008/09 financial crisis, but began to feel the pinch late last year as the debt crisis spread from Greece to its key trading partners in the eurozone and weighed on the real economy.
Germany earns 28 percent of its GDP by exporting goods to EU countries and Switzerland, but only 2.5 percent in exports to China, Berenberg Bank pointed out.
Forward-looking orders data released on Jan. 6 also signalled a slump ahead, with orders falling at the fastest pace since the height of the financial crisis nearly three years ago as demand from outside the euro zone plummeted.
Many economists have cut their 2012 growth forecasts. The Bundesbank expects growth of 0.6 percent this year, less than the government’s official forecast of 1.0 percent, while think tank IMK has even predicted a mild recession.
Roderich Egeler, head of the statistics office, said that Germany managed to continue its stellar recovery from the financial crisis last year, particularly due to strong demand at home. “The economic recovery took place primarily in the first half of the year,” Egeler, the head of the statistics office, told a news conference. “2011 saw strong private consumption,” he added.