The Central Bank’s Sectoral Inflation Expectations Survey for January revealed mixed movements in 12-month-ahead annual inflation expectations.
Expectations declined compared to the previous month by 1.15 points to 22.2 percent for market participants. They also fell by 1.9 points to 32.90 percent for the real sector. In contrast, household expectations rose by 1.18 points to 52.08 percent.
The report, released on Jan. 26, noted that the proportion of households expecting a fall in inflation over the next 12 months increased by 1.64 points to 26.17 percent.
The Consumer Price Index dropped to 30.89 percent in December 2025, marking the lowest annual level in 49 months. While leading indicators suggest that monthly consumer inflation firmed in January, driven largely by food prices, the rise in the underlying trend of inflation remains limited. Indicators for the final quarter point to demand conditions that continue to support the disinflation process, albeit at a moderating pace, the Central Bank said last week in a statement accompanying its interest rate decision.
The Bank cautioned that despite signs of improvement, inflation expectations and pricing behavior continue to pose risks to the disinflation process. On Jan 22, the Monetary Policy Committee decided to reduce the policy rate, the one‑week repo auction rate, from 38 percent to 37 percent, extending its easing cycle. The committee also lowered the Central Bank’s overnight lending rate from 41 percent to 40 percent and the overnight borrowing rate from 36.5 percent to 35.5 percent.
