Chinese auto giant BYD stands poised to officially surpass Tesla as the world's biggest electric vehicle company in annual sales.
The two groups are expected soon to publish their final figures for 2025, and based on sales data so far, there is almost no chance the American company led by Elon Musk will retain its leadership position.
At the end of November, BYD, which also produces hybrid vehicles, had sold 2.07 million EVs so far in 2025.
Tesla, for its part, had sold 1.22 million by the end of September.
Tesla's September figures included a one-time boost in sales, to nearly half a million vehicles in a three-month period, before the expiration of a U.S. tax credit for buyers of electric vehicles — which ended under legislation backed by President Donald Trump, a climate change skeptic.
But Tesla's sales in the coming quarter are expected to fall to 449,000, according to a FactSet analysis consensus. That would give Tesla about 1.65 million sales for all of 2025, a drop of 7.7 percent and well below the level BYD had attained by end November.
Deutsche Bank, which projects just 405,000 Tesla EV sales during the fourth quarter, sees the company's sales down by around one-third in both North America and Europe and by one-tenth in China.
Industry watchers say it will take time for EV demand to reach a level of equilibrium in the United States following the elimination of the $7,500 US tax credit at the end of September 2025.
Even as it has grown quickly, BYD has faced challenges in its home market.
With profitability in China weighed down by price-wary consumers, the company has sought to strengthen its foothold in foreign markets.
Trump's predecessor Joe Biden imposed 100 percent tariffs on Chinese EV imports that could potentially go even higher under Trump. Europe has also imposed tariffs on Chinese imports, but BYD is building manufacturing capacity in Hungary.
