A recent scientific study examining tectonic movements in Türkiye has raised concerns among geologists, suggesting that the Anatolian landmass could gradually split into two over millions of years due to ongoing crustal strain.
The research, conducted by academics from Zonguldak Bülent Ecevit University, Dokuz Eylül University and Fırat University, analyzed long-term satellite radar data to map crustal deformation across the country.
Their findings reveal a striking divergence. Land east of the capital Ankara is moving northward, while areas to the west are shifting southward.
According to Professor Şenol Hakan Kutoğlu, a faculty member in geomatics engineering, this opposing motion has created what researchers describe as a “zero-displacement line” extending from the southwestern province of Antalya to the coastal Black Sea city of Zonguldak.
Around this line lies a zone of accumulated strain, which the team has termed the “Central Anatolian Transition Zone.”
The study, published in an international scientific journal, indicates that this seismic zone has already produced numerous small- and medium-scale earthquakes in the past.
Kutoğlu explained that as long as this strain persists, the eastern portion of central Türkiye will continue to rise while the western portion subsides. “Over millions of years, these movements could accumulate to several kilometers,” he said, adding that “the eventual splitting of Anatolia into two separate blocks cannot be ruled out.”
The research also links these dynamics to broader plate tectonics. The Arabian tectonic plate is moving approximately 1.2 centimeters per year faster than the African plate, exerting pressure on Anatolia.
This interaction has played a significant role in shaping the East Anatolian Fault, one of the country’s principal seismic fault lines.
The study suggests that the northern segment of this fault could gradually approach and potentially merge with the North Anatolian Fault over geological timescales. Researchers also note the possibility of a new vertical fault line forming from the southern province of Hatay northward, intersecting existing fault systems.
