The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) will announce the closely watched March inflation figures on April 3.
Market expectations for monthly inflation in March range between 2 percent and 2.5 percent. In February, inflation stood at 2.96 percent on a monthly basis and 31.53 percent year-on-year, while consumer prices rose 7.95 percent compared to the end of December.
According to economist Zeynel Balcı, if March figures align with forecasts, accumulated inflation for the first quarter could reach 10 percent. Balcı noted that this naturally pushes year-end inflation projections higher, making the Central Bank of Türkiye’s 19 percent forecast increasingly difficult to achieve. Both domestic and international financial circles have revised their estimates upward to the 25–28 percent range. He also underlined that rising oil prices are already negatively impacting several sectors, particularly food.
Following the release of March inflation data, attention will turn to the Central Bank of Türkiye, which is set to announce its interest rate decision on April 22.
The general expectation is that, due to uncertainties stemming from the war in Iran and inflationary risks triggered by the conflict, the Central Bank will refrain from making any changes to its April interest rates.
In addition to inflation, several other key economic indicators will be released this week. The March Economic Confidence Index will be published on March 30, while February foreign trade statistics and labor force data will be unveiled on March 31.
