IEA lowers its growth forecast in oil demand for 2018, 2019
The International Energy Agency on Oct. 12 revised lower its growth forecast in global oil demand for 2018 and 2019, citing high prices, trade tensions and a less favorable economic outlook.
The estimated growth in global demand has been reduced by 110,000 barrels per day for each of the two years. This growth is expected to be 1.3 million bpd this year, then 1.4 million bpd in 2019.
“This is due to a weaker economic outlook, trade concerns, higher oil prices and a revision to Chinese data,” the IEA said in a statement in its monthly oil report.
“Expensive energy is back, with oil, gas and coal trading at multi-year highs, and it poses a threat to economic growth,” particularly for emerging economies, it warned.
“The global economy is also at risk from trade disputes,” it added. “Our revised demand outlook reflects these concerns.”
The IAE warned that recent peaks in supply and demand have put a strain on spare capacity.
“This strain could be with us for some time and it will likely be accompanied by higher prices, however much we regret them and their potential negative impact on the global economy.”