International Energy Agency (IEA) head Fatih Birol has stated that dominance by a single country in critical minerals poses a risk to energy security, predicting "serious tensions" among nations in 2026.
Birol described 2025 as a challenging year due to the growing influence of geopolitics on energy, affecting nearly all resources, in an interview with Anadolu Agency.
Birol noted signals of potential difficulties in critical minerals for the coming years.
"We use critical minerals in almost every part of our economy today. Therefore, we may face serious problems in critical minerals like copper, zinc, magnesium and others," he said.
Emphasizing that reliance on one country for any energy aspect carries major risks, Birol recalled high costs from past dependencies in various regions.
"It's not right to depend on one country. The number one golden rule of energy security is diversification. You need to diversify your oil, natural gas, critical minerals and nuclear fuels from different countries as much as possible to reduce risks."
"I think there could be serious tensions among countries over critical minerals in 2026," he continued.
Birol mentioned Türkiye's reserves in some critical minerals, advising careful handling of geological and ecological aspects.
"Not just extracting them, but Türkiye can play an important role in refining... I think the desire of countries to work with partners outside China and diversify their sources is an opportunity for Türkiye," he evaluated.
Recalling the IEA's forecast of an oversupply in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market by the end of 2025, Birol said that around 300 billion cubic meters of new LNG will enter the markets in the next five years.
"LNG markets have been seller markets for many years. They will turn into buyer markets. This will strengthen the hand of countries like Türkiye," he said.
Addressing advancements in Türkiye's energy sector, Birol said that the country took steps in the right direction regarding diversity.
Birol noted significant progress in solar and wind energy in Türkiye but stressed the need for new grids to implement renewables faster and more securely, requiring urgent financing.
Evaluating Türkiye's hosting of COP31 in 2026, Birol said, "COP31 is a chance for Türkiye to prove it is a bridge between regions in both energy and climate."
