Severe disruption in the Strait of Hormuz following the war in the Middle East has intensified the search for alternative energy routes, bringing Türkiye into sharper focus as a possible transit corridor for oil and natural gas flows to Europe.
Although the strait has not been formally declared closed, crossings have come under tight restrictions, sharply disrupting maritime traffic and energy shipments.
The route, which handles around one-fifth of global oil trade, has seen tanker traffic slow dramatically, with some days recording no crossings at all, according to the source text.
The disruption has placed around 15 million barrels of daily crude shipments at risk, while higher insurance costs and security concerns have added pressure to transport.
Oil prices rose from around $70 to $120 during the crisis, while Europe’s benchmark TTF gas contracts climbed from roughly 30 euros to the 60-70 euro range, underscoring the scale of the shock to global energy markets.
Emergency measures have so far failed to ease volatility. The release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves by member countries of the International Energy Agency signaled additional supply to the market, but concerns over a prolonged conflict have kept both oil and gas prices elevated.
As markets look for alternatives, existing bypass routes through Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates remain limited. The source text says total pipeline capacity circumventing Hormuz stands at between 3.5 million and 5.5 million barrels per day, well below the volume normally moving through the strait.
Against that backdrop, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said the Iraq-Türkiye Crude Oil Pipeline from Kirkuk to Ceyhan could carry up to 1.5 million barrels per day.
He also raised the possibility of Qatari gas reaching Türkiye by pipeline and then moving onward to Europe, describing such projects as increasingly important in a scenario where LNG infrastructure is disrupted and Hormuz transit remains constrained.
There is also longer-term options, including potential pipeline deliveries to Hatay as an alternative to maritime shipments through the Gulf. LNG, however, remains more vulnerable in the short term, as experts say rerouting gas flows away from Hormuz would be far more difficult than redirecting oil.
Türkiye is already gaining visibility in that broader realignment.
Exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, which resumed on March 17, are planned to rise first to 170,000 barrels per day and later to 250,000 barrels, while Russian gas deliveries via TurkStream rose 22 percent year-on-year in March to 55 million cubic meters per day, according to the source text.
Claudia Kemfert, head of the Energy, Transport and Environment Department at the German Institute for Economic Research, said a prolonged disruption in Hormuz would likely keep oil and LNG prices high and deepen dependence on strategic reserves.
She said Türkiye could play an alternative role in the medium term by strengthening its transit corridor position between the Caspian region, the Middle East and Europe, while noting that current infrastructure limits would prevent it from offsetting a major supply shock in the short term.
