Warming Black Sea may fuel stronger storms in future, study warns

ISTANBUL

Surface temperatures in the Black Sea could rise by an average of 4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century under the worst-case climate scenario, increasing the severity of extreme weather events and sea level rise, a Turkish climate scientist has warned.

"In the worst-case scenario, storm energy will increase in the northern Black Sea, impacting Türkiye’s northern coastline. The biggest effect of the warming Black Sea will be the intensification of storms,” Professor Mehmet Ilıcak from Istanbul Technical University’s Department of Climate and Marine Sciences explained.

According to Ilıcak, as sea surface temperatures rise, the increased evaporation will fuel heavier rainfall in the Black Sea region, much like the hurricanes experienced in the Atlantic.

This process will eventually lead to a more significant rise in sea levels and higher storm surges in the region.

Ilıcak and his team’s ocean circulation model also indicate that seawater salinity will rise and lead to soil salinization in coastal farmlands, possibly resulting in unfit conditions for agriculture.

Another key concern is the impact on marine ecosystems.

Warmer, saltier waters could lead to more frequent and intense marine heatwaves, resulting in fish mortality and a reduction in overall biomass, Ilıcak noted.

Unless emissions decline sharply, the outlook for Türkiye’s seas is concerning, according to the expert.

Even if Türkiye reduces its emissions, it will not be enough unless the rest of the world follows suit, Ilıcak noted, underlining that the issue is a global one.