The worst-case scenario regarding the ongoing armed conflict in Iran is its potential to turn into a war engulfing the entire region, accompanied by a global energy and economic crisis, the Turkish top diplomat has warned, stressing that Türkiye is getting prepared against any sort of scenario, including security, energy and economy.
“Under current circumstances, the worst-case scenario is this: the conflict escalates, creating an environment of instability that engulfs Iran and the entire region,” Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said at a meeting with the Ankara bureau chiefs of the media outlets on late March 2 in Ankara.
Fidan, in his first comprehensive evaluation of the war between the United States-Israel alliance and Iran, urged that this crisis has the potential to drag the region and the world into a bigger danger.
The fact that Iran retaliates against the U.S. bases in the Gulf and other Arab countries increases the risk of turning the conflict into a regional security escalation, the minister said.
“Another aspect is the Strait of Hormuz. Closing the strait could cause significant disruptions in global financial and energy markets, forcing the U.S. to take swift action,” Fidan elaborated, adding there could also be a significant problem over global energy security should the crisis continue.
The minister informed that Türkiye’s relevant institutions are studying the military, security, political, economic, and energy dimensions of this conflict separately, saying, “We are continuing our preparations on the steps that can be taken according to possible scenarios. Our fundamental request and demand is clear: that the mutual attacks cease immediately and that diplomacy be resumed. We emphasize this clearly in all our meetings.”
How long will the war last?
On a question about his predictions on the course of the war, Fidan recalled that Israel’s goal is to eliminate any sort of threat stemming from Iran today and in the future, and, therefore, change the regime.
“Of course, we need to look at the intentions of the attacking forces here. I think Israel and the U.S. will want to prevent Iran from becoming a threat in the future,” Fidan said about the duration of the war.
The minister also recalled that Iran is bombing the energy facilities in the Gulf countries in order to mobilize them for ending the American-Israeli attacks, but stressed that this campaign does not produce the desired outcome for Tehran.
Türkiye able to protect itself
When asked about a potential Iranian attack on U.S. military bases hosting troops on Turkish soil, Fidan said, “Speaking independently from the Iranian case: Türkiye protects itself at all times. For this, it has the necessary will and capability.”
The Turkish diplomat also informed about ongoing diplomatic engagements with regional and European partners and underlined the need for maintaining stability in the region for the entire world.
“There is no single-layered but a multi-layered negotiation process. Firstly, can we bring the warring sides back to the table again? When would the attacking side be ready to pause its strikes?” Fidan said.
There seem to be two major objectives of the armed conflict, and the short-term one is to destroy Iran’s military capabilities and the long-term one is regime change, the minister underlined, stressing that these will require continued operations by the attacking side.
“Iran is a wide geography, and its missile systems, radar systems, air defense systems, electronic warfare systems and naval forces are spread across the country,” he added.
