Developments in the fund market can affect the real economy through various channels, according to a recent analysis published on the Central Bank blog.
In addition to firms’ inability to access their investments in the affected funds and the spillovers to their supply networks, declines in financial asset prices, tightening financial conditions and weaker confidence may also influence spending, investment and financing decisions of firms and households, it noted.
The study, however, found that real-sector companies affected by the liquidation of certain investment funds account for a relatively small share of the Turkish economy and continue to have access to bank credit.
The analysis examined firms holding investments in funds that were placed into liquidation following a decision by the Capital Markets Board (CMB) on Sept. 17, 2026.
According to the study, around 3,000 non-financial companies held a combined 116 billion Turkish Liras in the affected funds as of Sept. 15. Nearly half of that amount, or 57 billion lira, was invested in money market funds, with the remainder spread across equity and other fund types.
The researchers found that the affected firms represented about 1.2 percent of total real-sector assets, 0.6 percent of employment, 0.9 percent of turnover, 1.1 percent of exports and 0.9 percent of outstanding commercial loans.
The study also assessed the degree of exposure among individual companies by comparing their investments in the liquidated funds with current assets on their balance sheets. Firms classified as highly exposed accounted for only 0.03 percent of total employment and turnover, while representing just 0.02 percent of commercial loans, suggesting limited systemic importance.
Looking at supply-chain effects, the authors identified suppliers that derived more than 5 percent of their sales from companies invested in the affected funds. Those suppliers accounted for 1.2 percent of employment and 1.5 percent of turnover across the economy, while the figures declined significantly when firms with lower exposure levels were excluded.
The report said weekly data showed an increase in the share of short-term lira loans extended to firms invested in the liquidated funds, indicating that these companies were still able to obtain financing despite liquidity pressures associated with the liquidation process.
The authors said the Central Bank’s macroprudential measures introduced on Oct. 1, 2026, to support financial stability and bank liquidity management may have contributed to maintaining credit access. The study also said measures aimed at facilitating financing for SMEs and corporate bond issuers could help contain potential risks.
The analysis concluded that while firms invested in the liquidated funds have experienced liquidity constraints, their direct weight in the economy remains limited. The authors noted, however, that broader effects from declining asset prices, tighter financial conditions and weaker confidence could still influence consumption, investment and production decisions.
