Household and market participant expectations for 12-month annual inflation edged up in September 2026, while real sector expectations dropped, according to the Central Bank’s Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey published Sept. 23.
Compared to the previous month, 12-month-ahead inflation expectations rose by 0.02 percentage points to 45.60 percent for households and by 0.01 percentage points to 23.70 percent for market participants. Expectations among real sector participants, meanwhile, declined by 0.30 percentage points to 32.50 percent.
Türkiye’s annual inflation rate eased from 31.75 percent in July to 31.52 percent in August, while consumer prices increased 1.84 percent on a monthly basis.
The Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey compiles 12-month-ahead consumer inflation forecasts from financial and real sector experts, manufacturing industry firms and households.
The share of households expecting inflation to decline over the next 12 months fell by 0.60 percentage points from the previous month to 16.25 percent.
According to the survey, the product and service groups households considered to have recorded the largest price increases over the past year and expected to post the largest increases over the next 12 months were food and fuel and energy.
The proportion of respondents identifying food as the category with the highest price increase declined by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month to 37.8 percent.
In terms of investment preferences, gold remained the most favored option. The share of respondents saying they would buy gold increased by 1.7 percentage points from the previous month to 43 percent.
The share of participants indicating they would invest in real estate, including houses, shops and land, decreased by 3.5 percentage points to 33.6 percent, making it the second most preferred investment choice.
Expectations for house prices over the next 12 months declined by 1.44 percentage points from the previous month to 30.69 percent.
Meanwhile, the expected U.S. dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate 12 months ahead increased by 1.43 lira compared with the previous month, reaching 55.90 liras.
