2015 growth may go up to 4 percent

The December 2015 industrial production data that was released at the beginning of the week was above expectations. This data has been perceived as a positive signal for the 2015 growth figures to be released in March. 

While markets are expecting a growth rate of 3.6 percent, the annual increase in the December industrial production was 4.5 percent when seasonally adjusted. With this data, the increase in the last quarter of last year was 4.2 percent, making the year-long industrial production increase 3.1 percent. 

Market experts expect the growth rate in the last quarter of the year to reach 5 percent with this new data and the growth rate of 2015 to be 4 percent. 

The Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, while constructing its new medium-term program, forecast the 2015 growth at 4 percent, but this figure was doubted by the markets. But recently released industrial data has shown that this estimate by the government could come true. Even if it doesn’t hit 4 percent, the growth figure could definitely be 3.8 percent. 

This figure indeed belongs to the previous year, and because it was released three months later, its effects have ended. In other words, it cannot be expected to create optimism for the future. However, despite this, in terms of national income calculations – and thus in the calculations of data such as the national income per capita – it will play an important role. 

On the other hand, market experts share the opinion that it will not be possible to reach the industrial production figure of December 2015 in the first month of 2016. Taking into account several preliminary data, a fall is estimated for January. It also not be possible to make a generalization for the whole year by looking at the January industrial production or the initial growth data. An estimate for all of 2016 will have to wait until at least first-quarter data is released. 

Meanwhile, it should not be forgotten that the fact that last year’s growth rates were above expectations because of the base effect will unavoidably affect the growth rates of this year. 

Uncertainty climbs  

Even if the first figures have not come out, markets are not optimistic concerning this year’s growth rates. While a serious slowdown is experienced in the loan supply, the problem in existing credit back payments is also growing. Real sector representatives have started complaining about banks because they are not giving loans. Banks, on the other hand, are having serious concerns on the macroeconomic equilibrium and the power of the real sector to generate income. For this reason, they are forced to adopt a more cautious stance than ever. 

The major reason for this climate is the lack of confidence and the corresponding uncertainty. While there is uncertainty about the global process, the economy’s managers in Turkey have been behind in doing what they have to do, increasing the uncertainty. Also, domestic and international political developments have started being perceived increasingly as more of a risk factor.  

In summary, we have come to the middle of the second month of the year but uncertainties have not been eliminated about the entire year. Instead, they have grown bigger. This year it seems that it will be quite difficult to reach the 4 percent growth figure of 2015.