Surveys, spirit of the time and political victory
The main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), cannot get the zeitgeist, the spirit of the time. Whenever it gets it, then it gets it wrong.
Our people went through two major traumas in 2016. One was the threat of segregation with urban wars and the other was the threat of civil war and coup d’état on July 15.
At a time when Turkey is experiencing the pangs of survival to its bones, the CHP comes out and makes a call for “democratic resistance.”
This is not the spirit of the time. The CHP was against the coup on July 15. The biggest gain of July 15 was the “Yenikapı spirit” when the major political parties united at Istanbul’s Yenikapı square.
With its last communiqué, CHP has conducted the funeral services of the Yenikapı spirit.
I spoke to three research companies, GENAR, Andy-Ar and A&G.
Interesting results have come out. According to A&G’s questionnaire, 91 percent of our people support the fight against terror. The rate of those supporting the Mosul operation is 80 percent; while 78 percent support a land operation to Mosul. People are supporting the fight against terror but they know the solution cannot be only in domestic measures.
The support for the leadership President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has demonstrated on July 15 is 88 percent.
July 15 has shifted fault lines of politics. There are shifts from Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), from the CHP to the MHP, from the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) to CHP.
The latest vote distribution is AK Party 55, CHP 25, MHP 12 and HDP 7.5 percent. As you can see, the HDP has gone below 8 percent. Have those votes that have been snatched from the HDP gone to the AK party? No. They are waiting in the gray area. Regional people will decide according to the result of politics.
These rates are subject to change because we are not in an election period. There is the effect of the state of emergency. But it gives an idea.
Turkey’s politics are going through a reshaping process. It is good to feel the pulse of the society. AK Party hires three different companies to have regular monthly surveys for them. That is how they have reached 55 percent. President Erdoğan works with survey companies since the days he was the mayor.
After July 15, the confidence for President Erdoğan rose to 60 percent. This is because the society sees Erdoğan as the assurance of Turkey’s survival, also for his leadership during the coup attempt.
There are very important results from the east and southeast regions. After trustees were appointed, Andy-Ar’s survey in the region showed that local people see the solution in politics not in terror.
To the question of “Who would solve the Kurdish issue,” 65 percent answered Erdoğan while 20 percent answered Demirtaş and 15 percent Öcalan.
As you can see, people are searching for a solution not in terror, but in politics. While two politicians as Erdoğan and Demirtaş move to the forefront, Öcalan is at the level of 15 percent. The recognition that policies were sincere during the resolution process has a huge share in this.
How do regional people regard the trustees? In the survey conducted at 20 municipalities trustees were appointed, the result is 50 percent to 50 percent.
In 10 districts such as Sur, Cizre, Silopi where radicals dominate, people are not happy with the trustees.
More frankly, there is no content on whatever the government does. In the remaining 10 districts, people are happy with local services that directly affect them. What do the local people think about the arrests of HDP deputies? That survey has not been completed yet. When it comes out, I will share it and I am also very curious.