The 12-month ahead annual inflation expectations among both households and market participants improved in June, according to a survey conducted by the Central Bank.
The bank said on June 22 that households’ 12-month-ahead annual inflation expectations declined by 3.38 percentage points from the previous month to 46.13 percent.
The share of households expecting the inflation rate to decline over the next 12 months compared to the previous month increased by 0.1 percentage point to 15.7 percent, the bank said.
“The product and service groups that households assessed as having increased the most in price over the past year and expected to increase the most in the next 12 months were food and fuel and energy,” the survey showed.
According to the survey, the share of respondents who identified food as the product or service group with the highest price increase fell by 1.6 percentage points from the previous month to 39.3 percent.
Türkiye’s annual inflation rate rose slightly from 32.37 percent in April to 32.61 percent in May, while consumer prices increased 1.7 percent month-on-month. In May, the Central Bank raised its year-end inflation forecast for 2026 to 26 percent, citing the impact of the regional conflict, higher energy prices and increased uncertainty surrounding the global outlook.
The bank said in its quarterly inflation report in May that it expects inflation to fall to 15 percent at the end of 2027 and 9 percent at the end of 2028 before stabilizing at the medium-term target of 5 percent.
The survey also showed that expectations for the U.S. dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate over the next 12 months increased by 0.14 lira from the previous month to 52.67 liras.
“When examining participants’ investment preferences, the percentage of participants indicating that they would buy gold, which ranked first, decreased by 4 percentage points compared to the previous month, reaching 44.3 percent,” the bank said.
The share of respondents who said they would purchase a house, shop, land or similar property, the second most preferred investment option, increased by 3.9 percentage points month-on-month to 37.1 percent.
The Central Bank’s Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey, released on June 22, showed that 12-month-ahead annual inflation expectations declined by 0.01 percentage point to 23.81 percent for market participants compared with the previous month, while remaining unchanged at 33.10 percent for the real sector.
Sectoral Inflation Expectations are compiled using the 12-month-ahead annual consumer inflation expectations of financial and real sector experts, manufacturing industry firms and households.
