The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects Türkiye’s economy to grow by 3.5 percent in 2026, down from its 4 percent forecast in February 2026.
Growth is projected to pick up to 4 percent in 2027, also revised down from 4.5 percent, it said.
These forecasts were published on June 2 in the bank’s Regional Economic Prospects report.
The report attributes the downward revision of Türkiye’s growth forecasts to rising energy imports, persistent inflationary pressures and potential effects of the conflict in the Middle East on tourism and manufacturing value chains.
The report also notes that while energy import costs, capital outflows, lower tourism receipts and disruptions to industrial supply chains owing to the conflict in the Middle East may raise inflation and put pressure on the current account, strengthened fiscal and external buffers mean that the economy can absorb shocks comfortably.
Against a backdrop of global uncertainty, growth across the EBRD regions as a whole is expected to slow from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 3.1 percent in 2026, before recovering to 3.6 percent in 2027, the report said.
This represents a downward revision of 0.5 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, compared with the February 2026 projections.
