Falling birth rates, weakening student demand and rising operating costs are increasingly disrupting the financial and academic balance of Türkiye’s private universities, with education experts warning that a prolonged period of “demographic winter” has begun and may force some institutions to close, merge or change ownership within the next decade.
Türkiye’s population is aging rapidly, while fertility rates have declined uninterruptedly since 2014. According to projections by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), the number of students of primary school age will fall by around 900,000 over the next five years, which is expected to trigger a structutral transformation that will affect all levels of the education system.
Among the most vulnerable segments are foundation universities, many of which have already been struggling with declining demand and mounting financial pressures.
Placement data from the 2025 Higher Education Institutions Examination (YKS) confirm this trend. Overall quota occupancy at foundation universities fell to 75.8 percent, the lowest level in the past five years, with some institutions unable to fill even half of their available seats.
Engin Karadağ, director of the University Research Laboratory (UNIAR), said the drop in Türkiye’s fertility rate to 1.48 should no be viewed at a temporary fluctuation. “This marks the beginning of a permanent demographic winter,” he noted. “It shows that the pool of students who will reach university age roughly 18 years from now is already shrinking today.”
According to Karadağ, the next decade will fundamentally alter supply-demand dynamics in higher education, hitting foundation universities hardest due to their heavy reliance on tuition fees, which account for more than 80 percent of their revenues.
If current trends persist, an oversupply will emerge in a system designed for more than one million new students annually, making closures or mergers unavoidable for financially fragile and low-preference institutions.
Similar “zombie university” phenomena have already been observed in Japan, South Korea and parts of Europe.
Kastamonu University faculty member Tunay Kamer identified three core drivers behind the shift: The contraction of the university-age population, the erosion of the diploma’s role as a guarantee of employment and the rise of alternatives such as short-term certification programs, digital learning and direct labor market entry.
“For private universities, the coming decade will be one of forced repositioning,” he said.
