Inflation expectations edged higher in March, according to the Turkish Central Bank’s Survey of Market Participants.
Consumer inflation (CPI) is now projected at 25.38 percent at the end of 2026, up from 24.11 percent in the previous survey. Expectations for the 12-month ahead inflation rose slightly to 22.17 percent from 22.10 percent, while the 24‑month outlook climbed to 17.30 percent from 17.11 percent.
The survey, which tracks the views of financial and real sector decision-makers, also reflected modest adjustments in currency forecasts. Participants now see the year-end U.S. dollar/Turkish Lira exchange rate at 50.97, compared with 51.09 in the prior survey. The 12‑month ahead exchange rate expectation increased to 52.70 from 52.39.
Growth projections of survey participants were little changed. The 2026 GDP growth expectation slipped to 3.8 percent from 3.9 percent, while the 2027 forecast remained steady at 4.3 percent.
On March 12, the Central Bank kept its policy interest rate, or one-week repo rate, constant at 37 percent.
The bank said its tight monetary policy stance will strengthen the disinflation process through demand, exchange rate and expectation channels.
