Responding to Middle East crises and rising oil prices, the United Nations has lowered its forecast for global economic growth.
U.N. economists said global GDP growth is now forecast at 2.5 percent for 2026, down from 2.7 percent in January.
That would be one of the weakest growth rates this century, outside of the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis of 2008, said Shantanu Mukherjee, director of economic analysis in the U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
Global inflation is projected to rise to 3.9 percent this year, 0.8 percent higher than forecast in January.
In the United States, the economy is expected to remain “comparatively resilient” with 2 percent growth forecast this year, broadly similar to 2025, the World Economic Situation and Prospects report said.
By contract, Europe “is more exposed, with heavy reliance on imported energy straining households and businesses,” the economists said. Economic growth in the European Union is expected to slow from 1.5 percent in 2025 to 1.1 percent in 2026, while growth in the United Kingdom is forecast to drop further, from 1.4 percent last year to 0.7 percent this year.
The U.N. said China’s economic growth is expected to slow from 5 percent in 2025 to 4.6 percent this year.
India is forecast to remain one of the fastest growing major economics, with its economy expanding by 6.4 percent this year, although that is lower than its 7.5 percent growth in 2025.
