According to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Türkiye will rank first among countries with a majority Muslim population in terms of economic size.
In its World Economic Outlook report published in April, the IMF projected that Türkiye’s GDP will rise to $1.64 trillion this year. Based on this projection, Türkiye’s economy will surpass Indonesia, which had long held the lead in this category. Indonesia’s GDP is expected to reach $1.54 trillion this year.
Saudi Arabia is forecast to reach $1.39 trillion in GDP in 2026, placing it third among majority-Muslim countries. Within this group, only Türkiye, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia are projected to have economies exceeding one trillion dollars.
Analysts noted that Türkiye’s projected leap in GDP is driven by expansion in manufacturing, recovery in tourism, growth in exports and the impact of the exchange rate. They emphasized that these factors have pushed Türkiye’s nominal GDP ahead of other majority-Muslim countries.
Despite its population advantage and natural resource wealth, Indonesia has been affected by slowdowns in certain sectors and volatility in global commodity prices. Analysts also highlighted that other large economies in this group rely heavily on raw material and energy exports, while Türkiye’s diversified structure in industry and services has made its growth momentum more sustainable.
In January, the IMF forecast that Türkiye’s economy would grow by 4.2 percent in 2026. However, in April, citing the negative impact of high oil and natural gas prices on economic activity, the IMF revised its 2026 real growth forecast for Türkiye down to 3.4 percent.
