A Syria's national flag is pictured near the Iraqi-Syrian border, in Al-Qaim, west of Iraq on Jan. 23, 2026.
Syria has become one of the most complex battlefields of the modern era — a geography where not only armies, but also intelligence services, have been relentlessly tested. In this multi-actor, multi-layered arena, success has often been shaped not on the front lines but behind the scenes. From Türkiye’s perspective, the strategic gains achieved in Syria are closely tied to the pivotal role played by Turkish intelligence.
Rather than relying on classical power projection, Turkish intelligence success in Syria has been built on a model centered on strategic reasoning, network management and timing. This approach has enhanced the effectiveness of military operations, while also strengthening Türkiye’s hand at the diplomatic table. Today, the fact that no plan aimed at excluding Türkiye from the Syrian equation can be considered realistic is largely attributable to this invisible yet highly effective power.
As the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), having realized that U.S. support is no longer guaranteed, continue dialogue with the Damascus government, Türkiye has emerged as a key actor in this process. In particular, Ankara’s ability to accurately read and analyze the maneuvering of local tribes has shaped its strategic posture. Domestically, the “terror-free Türkiye” initiative has likewise been advanced through the successful operations and intelligence-gathering capacity of the National Intelligence Organization (MİT). With a long-standing presence on the ground, the organization has enabled well-timed and precise moves, helping to prevent further fragmentation in the region. At its core, the Syrian crisis has generated a security environment that transcends classical models of interstate conflict, producing a multi-actor and multi-layered landscape. In such an environment, intelligence capability has become as decisive—if not more so—than military capacity. For Türkiye, the Syrian theater has served not only as a test of border security, but also as a critical arena for counterterrorism, regional balance and strategic foresight. Within this framework, Turkish intelligence stands out as one of the key forces shaping developments on the ground.
Praemonitus, Praemunitus: Forewarned Is Forearmed
Turkish intelligence operations in Syria have been shaped by a model grounded in intelligence production and network management, rather than a traditional security approach based solely on territorial control. The simultaneous activity of numerous actors on the ground has rendered static and one-dimensional analyses insufficient. Consequently, Türkiye has developed a flexible, multi-layered intelligence approach that takes local dynamics and inter-actor relationships into account. This approach has enabled not only the assessment of current developments but also the anticipation of potential trajectories, adding strategic depth to both military and diplomatic decision-making processes.
Success, in this context, should not be measured merely by executed operations or short-term security gains, but by the ability to identify and manage threats before they fully materialize. Turkish intelligence’s early warning and preventive security capacity has made it possible to contain asymmetric threats targeting Türkiye beyond its borders. This demonstrates that border security is conceived not merely in terms of physical lines, but through a forward-looking and depth-oriented security paradigm. It can be argued that the preventive capacity of Turkish intelligence has played a decisive role in rendering many anti-Türkiye plans in the Syrian theater unworkable.
Moreover, Turkish intelligence’s role in Syria has gone beyond a purely defensive security logic, at times producing an impact that has reshaped power balances on the ground. This impact, while not always visible, has effectively constrained the maneuvering space of various actors. The transformation of intelligence activities into a strategic instrument has enabled Türkiye to pursue a controlled and sustainable approach to Syria, rather than resorting to sudden or reactive policy shifts.
Looking ahead, a reduction in the intensity of conflict in Syria does not imply a diminished role for intelligence. On the contrary, in the post-military phase, intelligence activities are likely to become more indirect, long-term and complex. Counterterrorism, irregular migration, the repositioning of local actors and regional power competition will continue to necessitate a strong intelligence presence. In this context, the primary task of Turkish intelligence will be to manage uncertainty on the ground and safeguard Türkiye’s strategic interests through a long-term perspective.
