No negative perception of two digit unemployment figures
The December figures have shown that the unemployment rate has reached double digits. While the unemployment ratio in November was 9.9, this ratio reached 10.0 percent in December. However, it was around 10.1 percent in 2012 December.
The December figure encompasses the November-December-January period. The overall unemployment ratio, excluding the seasonal factors in December, was calculated at 9.4, dropping 9.8 percent from the November ratio.
That’s the reason why the figures about December unemployment, which were announced the other day, were not perceived negatively by the markets. On the contrary, we can even say it had a positive impact when figures for the period ahead are taken under consideration.
In the last month of 2013, employment excluding seasonal factors increased compared to the previous month in the industrial, agricultural, service and construction sectors. As such, we now see this rise in employment in industry and the December industrial production figures, which were announced last week, are consistent with each other.
It is noticeable that the creation of 210,000 additional jobs in December is the highest of the last three years. It was clearly seen that the deterioration in the employment market in the March-September 2013 period was replaced by a recovery in the last quarter of the year.
There has also been an increase in the February 2014 index for the “probability of finding a job in three months” compared to last month. This was commented on, as it could limit the negative effects of the slowing down in the economy to the employment market.
The effect of elections
Although markets welcomed the latest figures on employment, despite the concerns about growth, there are still questions as to what will happen from now on, because the global economic trend indicates that there will be a slowing down of growth in countries like ours. Due to that, there are fears that there could be negative developments in production levels and unemployment.
In addition, domestically, the probability of uncertainties fueled by politics is another point of concern as far as unemployment is concerned. The outcome of the municipal elections that will be held on March 30, as well as the situation of the political atmosphere in the aftermath, carries uncertainties. While we might not observe a negative effect until the end of March, it is naturally difficult to predict whether this trend will continue throughout the year
If the results of the local elections bring the necessity for snap general elections, the economy will be affected. If snap general elections are held at the same time as presidential elections, scheduled for August, it is unavoidable that this will have an extraordinary effect on the economy. If monetary discipline is disrupted due to an intensive election period, this perhaps might not have a negative effect on production and unemployment this year, but it will mean an accumulated weight for next year.