Climate conditions such as temperature and rainfall play a decisive role in olive cultivation, while excessive heat and cold stress negatively affect both yield and quality, according to an analysis published in the Olive Research Institute Journal of Türkiye’s Agriculture and Forestry Ministry.
The study said future climate projections point to a wide range of risks for perennial crops such as olive trees, including shrinking water resources, disruptions in physiological processes, shifts in phenological cycles and declines in both production and product quality.
Researchers noted that rising temperatures and higher evaporation rates, particularly across the Mediterranean climate zone where olive cultivation is widespread, are expected to extend growing seasons, alter flowering periods and accelerate fruit ripening.
These changes could lead to shifts in harvest timing and adversely affect both maturity levels and quality characteristics of olive products, the analysis said.
According to data published in the journal, Türkiye increased its share in global olive oil production from 5.5 percent to 13 percent over the past 35 years.
Global olive oil production stood at around 1.4 million tons in 1990 and climbed to a peak of 3.5 million tons in 2021. Output later fell to 2.5 million tons in 2023 before recovering to around 3.4 million tons in the 2024-2025 period.
Spain maintained its position as the world’s largest olive oil producer by volume, although its share of global production declined from 44 percent to 38 percent over the 35-year period.
Italy ranked second globally with relatively stable annual production ranging from 300,000 to 500,000 tons since the 1990s.
Greek production fluctuated between 200,000 and 400,000 tons, while Türkiye emerged as the largest producer outside the European Union with a production capacity ranging from 200,000 to 400,000 tons.
