The Central Bank of Türkiye’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will convene on March 12 to determine the key interest rate, at a time when conflict in the Middle East is unsettling global markets.
Rising energy costs triggered by the war are reshaping monetary policy outlooks worldwide, delaying anticipated rate cuts. Prospects for near-term easing in Türkiye have likewise diminished, with most analysts now expecting the bank to hold rates steady at the upcoming meeting.
Before the escalation in the Middle East, February inflation data — showing a monthly increase of 2.96 percent and an annual rise of 31.5 percent — had fueled expectations of a 50 to 100 basis point cut. Current forecasts, however, suggest the easing cycle will resume later in the year rather than this month.
Analysts highlight the cautious stance of Governor Fatih Karahan, who has consistently underscored data-driven decision-making. On January 22, the bank lowered its one-week repo auction rate from 38 percent to 37 percent, a smaller move than the 150-basis-point reduction widely anticipated by economists.
This week will also bring key macroeconomic indicators: industrial production for January (March 10), retail sales (March 11), the current account balance for January (March 12) and home sales for February (March 13).
