Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party is poised to secure a majority in parliament in by-elections today, but a year into his tenure, hints of vulnerability may be emerging.
A string of recent polls put the Liberals more than 10 points ahead of the opposition Conservatives.
Carney led the central banks of Canada and Britain before replacing Justin Trudeau as prime minister in March 2025.
Voters had soured on the Liberals after Trudeau's decade in power and the party was headed for an electoral wipeout.
But Carney transformed the race, persuading Canadians he was the ideal leader to confront the trade conflicts and geopolitical turmoil triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Carney's Liberals won elections last April but fell just short of a majority.
He has since delivered a series of speeches warning that Canada needs to dramatically reduce its economic and security dependence on the U.S.
The Liberals have also poached five opposition lawmakers to join their caucus.
The stunning defections mean if the Liberals win in two of the three districts holding by-elections today, they will take full control of parliament.
The Angus Reid Institute found last month that while the Liberals maintain an eight-point lead over Conservatives (44 to 36 percent), "concerns over the high cost of living are higher than they have been in recent memory for lower-income Canadians."
More than 40 percent of Canadians told Angus Reid they were feeling medium or high levels of financial pressure over issues like food prices and personal debt. That group of voters is far less likely to vote Liberal, the poll found.
