There is an 80-percent chance of the warming El Nino phenomenon developing between June and August, increasing the risk of extreme weather events, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on June 2.
“Fueled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, El Nino conditions are developing and are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns,” the United Nations’ weather and climate agency said.
Forecasts from the WMO global network “indicate a pronounced shift toward El Nino conditions, with probabilities reaching 80 percent for June-August,” the Geneva-based organization said.
El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.
It typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months.
Conditions oscillate between El Nino and its opposite La Nina, with neutral conditions in between.
The likelihood of El Nino developing by November is “near or above 90 percent” and most forecast models suggest it will be “at least moderate, and possibly strong,” the WMO said in its quarterly El Nino/La Nina update.
WMO chief Celeste Saulo said the world therefore needed to get ready for an El Nino which could “exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean.”
The WMO says that even a moderate El Nino makes some weather and climate extremes more likely.
The last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high at around 1.55 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
