The war in the Middle East and rising geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have begun to weigh more heavily on Türkiye’s manufacturing sector.
According to representatives of the plastics industry, since the outbreak of the Iran war on Feb. 28, prices of certain raw materials have surged by 70–80 percent, pushing final product prices up by at least 30 percent. Companies say a swift resolution to the conflict is essential for recovery to begin.
Industry players warn that this situation has created a growing vulnerability in industrial production. They note that the impact is becoming more visible by the day, with petrochemical raw material prices climbing rapidly, supply times lengthening and uncertainty deepening.
Manufacturers are being forced to stockpile at higher costs, which in turn increases their financial burden. Plastics producers stress that the Turkish industry is now under significant “Hormuz pressure.”
Ömer Karadeniz, president of the Plastics Industry Federation (PLASFED), explained: “Energy, logistics and raw material flows are all squeezed into the same corridor, creating chain reactions. This is not just a sectoral issue — it has serious consequences for the broader economy.”
He added that the industry now faces not only rising costs but also risks to supply security, marking a critical threshold for sustainable production. Karadeniz emphasized the need for urgent, strategic measures, including the rapid activation of alternative supply channels and strengthening domestic production capacity: “In a period of heightened global fragility, steps must be taken to reduce our dependence on external sources.”
Yavuz Eroğlu, President of PAGEV, also warned: “If supply shortages persist and companies run out of stock, the scarcity of raw materials will soon spread to finished products.”
He pointed out that packaging is the most vulnerable sector, adding: “A shortage in packaging would directly affect many industries.”
The Istanbul Chamber of Industry’s (İSO) Türkiye Manufacturing PMI survey also reflects the slowdown caused by the Iran war. The headline PMI fell to 45.7 in April, down from 47.9 in March.
The deterioration in the manufacturing sector’s performance was the sharpest since September 2024. Manufacturing output contracted at the fastest pace since the COVID-19 pandemic, matching the decline seen in September 2024. The slowdown has now extended into its 25th consecutive month.
