Türkiye is heading into 2026 with inflation, exports and the next steps in its disinflation drive at the top of the economic agenda, alongside efforts to keep growth steady and broad-based.
Inflation in the country stood at 64-65 percent at the end of 2022 and 2023 and fell to 44.4 percent at the end of 2024.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), meanwhile, fell to 31.07 percent in November 2025, reaching its lowest in the last four years.
Türkiye’s Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2026-28 expects the inflation rate to average 28.5 percent in 2025 and fall to around 16 percent in 2026.
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said more supportive global financial conditions, moderate commodity prices, tight monetary and fiscal policy, enhanced financial stability, and accelerating improvements in expectations will propel the disinflation process further.
Şimşek, speaking at parliament for the 2026 budget talks, said the new year will see a further decline in inflation.
Besides disinflation, Türkiye will continue its efforts to reach its sustainable growth targets in 2026.
The Turkish economy grew 3.7 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025.
Growth rate for the fourth quarter and the entire 2025 will be announced on March 2.
The economy grew 3.3 percent in 2024, and the expected rate for 2025 is 3.3 percent and 3.8 percent in 2026 in line with Medium-Term Program targets.
Türkiye’s credit rating announcements by international agencies will be one of the prominent economic agenda items in 2026.
Moody’s has upgraded Türkiye’s credit rating by three notches since May 2023, and the S&P and Fitch Ratings by two notches.
Fitch and Moody’s will make the first credit rating assessment of 2026 on Jan. 23, and the S&P is expected to announce its findings on April 17.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s international visits this year to develop trade and relations will also be featured intensively on the economic agenda.
Trade Minister Ömer Bolat and businesspeople finished 2025 with diplomatic trade talks, and such visits are planned to increase in 2026. Bolat said in November that the ministry made 110 contacts with foreign countries.
Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations will also come to the fore in 2026.
Eyes on Central Bank as it sets to hold rate meeting this month
The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) interest rate decisions will be closely watched this year as disinflation continues.
In its final meeting of 2025, held on Dec. 11, the MPC lowered the one-week repo rate from 39.5 percent to 38 percent.
Eight meetings are planned for 2026, with the first scheduled for January 22. Inflation reports will also be in focus, with the Central Bank set to hold briefing sessions on Feb. 12, May 14, Aug. 13 and Nov. 12.
At its April meeting in 2025, in a surprise move, the bank raised the rate by 350 basis points to 46 percent, and left it unchanged at the June meeting, before slashing it by 300 basis points to 43 percent at the July meeting.
At its August meeting, the bank lowered the rate by 250 basis points to 40.5 percent, surpassing estimates, before cutting it again by 100 basis points to 39.5 percent in its previous meeting.
