The sea level in the Black Sea has risen by around 10 to 12 centimeters over the past three decades, exposing coastal regions and approximately 160 million people living along the basin to growing risks linked to climate change, according to a Turkish academic study.
Professor Şenol Hakan Kutoğlu from Zonguldak Bülent Ecevit University analyzed satellite altimetry data covering the period from 1993 to 2020. Satellite altimetry allows daily measurements of sea level with high precision.
His findings show that the Black Sea is rising at an annual rate of about 2.5 to 3 millimeters — a pace comparable to that of the world’s oceans.
Kutoğlu presented the study at the 16th International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology, held in Tokyo in late November.
According to Kutoğlu, global sea levels are currently rising by roughly 3 millimeters per year due to climate change, driven mainly by melting glaciers and ice sheets.
If carbon emissions continue at current levels, projections indicate that global sea levels could rise by around 2 meters by the end of the century.
Such an increase would have major consequences for coastal erosion.
According to Kutoğlu, a one-meter rise in sea level can cause seawater to advance 50 to 100 times farther inland, depending on coastal topography.
While research on the Black Sea has been limited compared with open oceans, the new analysis suggests that coastal cities along the Black Sea face similar threats.
From 1993 to 2020, the basin-wide average sea level increase was measured at around 10–12 centimeters.
Low-lying areas along the northern Black Sea coast are considered particularly vulnerable, as their relatively flat terrain makes them more exposed to erosion and flooding.
However, risks are not limited to that region.
Parts of southern Black Sea coastlines, including areas in Türkiye, also contain low-elevation zones that could be affected by future sea-level rise and storm-driven flooding.
"Low-elevation zones are also present along our Black Sea coastline. Consequently, rising sea levels are expected to encroach further inland, with storm events causing significant destruction in interior areas over time,” he said.
According to Kutoğlu, approximately 160 million people live along the Black Sea basin, with a large share of settlements located close to the shoreline.
Kutoğlu said countries with investments along the Black Sea coast should reassess coastal infrastructure plans, taking erosion and flood risks into account.
He warned that failure to do so could lead to rising maintenance costs and the need for repeated protective measures such as breakwaters.
He also highlighted high-risk areas around the Sea of Azov, parts of Russia, Romania, the Balkans and Georgia, where large sections of the coastline could be threatened by inundation.
He emphasized that future investments would be more sustainable if they are built farther inland and at higher elevations, reducing long-term economic and environmental costs.
