Two possible coalitions in the future
The new parliament’s seat distribution and the political environment that created this are not two separate things. Because we passed through an extremely polarized political environment where political disputes were expressed at the level of hate and in the language of war, we have this parliament today. We should never forget this.
As of this moment, all political actors will have to move within the option this parliament arithmetic obliges them to. This seat distribution enables only two types of coalitions.
The first type of coalition could be named an “ex-term focused” coalition, which would seek to bring the past into account. The second type of coalition would be a “let us look ahead” one.
The current seat distribution tells us these two types of coalitions cannot exist simultaneously.
For the first type, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) could get together this way or that way and the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) would be the only opposition. These three parties do have a common denominator - bringing to account the AK Party and toppling the AK Party government - but do they share the same policies on education, the economy, foreign policy or the ongoing peace process, while looking at the future? If you ask me, not quite; as a matter of fact, for instance, it is a mystery whether the MHP and the HDP would ever be together in the same government. We also do not know whether or not the CHP and the MHP would agree on a weak coalition supported by the HDP.
The second type of coalition, “let us look ahead,” would be coalition led by the AK Party in any case, leaving two other parties in opposition. The strongest expectation is that the AK Party coalesces with the CHP or the MHP, but the CHP suggested the MHP as a coalition partner while the MHP suggested the CHP or the HDP. They have not expressed it openly but I think the HDP suggested the MHP partner with the AK Party. In other words, nobody wants to partner with the AK Party.
Talks that will last a couple of weeks will determine what kind of a coalition we will have.
The election of the Speaker of Parliament, which will be completed in 13 to 15 days, will show us which type of coalition we are heading to.
Which party will the Speaker of Parliament come from?
According to the constitution, after the deputies take their oaths, in the next five days candidates can be nominated for the Speaker of Parliament position. In the next five days, the parliament will elect its speaker.
In the first two rounds, a qualified majority is sought. In the third round, an absolute majority of 276 votes are required. In the last round, the two candidates who have received the most votes in the third round will compete and the winner will become the Speaker of Parliament.
If a minimum of one opposition party agrees with the AK Party, then the Speaker of Parliament will be elected in the third round. If not, then a name from the opposition will probably be elected in the fourth round.
If the Speaker of Parliament is elected in the third round at the latest, then the probability of a coalition with the AK Party will increase. If the election of the Speaker of Parliament extends to the fourth round, then the possibility of a coalition without the AK Party will increase. But only its probability will increase.