Everybody to pay the price for not forming a government
It has been 60 days since we held our election. Up to this day, I tried to avoid writing about speculative or hopeful pieces on the probabilities of a government; I commented when necessary.
This was what I immediately said after the election: First of all, the probability of the three-party formula excluding the Justice and Development Party (Ak Party) will be exhausted. Without exhausting that option, there was no possibility to approach the “rational.” Thankfully, that option was exhausted in a very short time.
After the option excluding the Ak Party was exhausted, there were three possibilities left. The weakest one of them was the Ak Party and the Kurdish issue-focused Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP); that eroded immediately also. Then, when the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) was insistent on keeping itself outside the equation, there was only one option left: The Ak Party and the Republican People’s Party (CHP).
Now, we are slowly approaching the days when decisions should actually be made. Do not pay attention to the statements coming from the Ak Party such as “We are meeting with the MHP,” or that Ak Party leader Ahmet Davutoğlu will hold a second-round meeting with MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli as well as CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. These are the “You are not the only alternative” messages given to the CHP during this negotiation.
On the other hand, do not pay any attention to the statements coming from the MHP such as “We would not oppose a minority government for elections.” These are attempts to dynamite the Ak Party-CHP negotiation.
There is one serious coalition possibility ahead of us and that is the Ak Party-CHP coalition.
The glass is half full and half empty as always. Both parties have enough reasons to not partner with each other; if you ask them they would utter them like a machine gun.
But at the same time there is the effort both parties are exerting not to be the one toppling the coalition table, because both parties are aware of the price to be paid for not being able to form the government and be responsible for the failure.
They would either undertake this price and the country will hold elections or they will form a government. There is no middle-ground.
There is a widespread opinion that goes, “But President Tayyip Erdoğan would not allow a coalition; he wants to renew elections.” If this opinion is expressed strongly and loudly (but I am not so sure), then the price will be paid by both Erdoğan and the Ak Party.
No precision in conspiracies
Since the day after the election, there has been a rumor circulating the Ak Party reviewed in detail the election results and saw there were 38 seats that were lost by a very small margin. This was interpreted as indicating if a little bit more effort is exerted in those constituencies, then one-party rule would again be possible.
Correct, the d’Hont system we use in our elections has several tricks and it happens. Not only the Ak Party, but there are other seats all parties lost by a very small margin.
You have to review it from the reverse side also: How many seats did the Ak Party win by a very small margin? According to one calculation, 68 deputies were able to be elected with such a small margin. Well, if it is possible to gain the ones lost by a small margin then why should it not be possible to lose the similar ones that were won?
The new election is a knife sharp at both ends; it is impossible to predict the results in advance.