Election campaign poster depicting top candidate of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party Kristin Brinker is seen in front of the headquarters of Germany's conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party depicting top candidate of the CDU party Stefan Evers for the upcoming Berlin state elections in Berlin on September 17 2026. (AFP Photo)
Two German state elections on Sept. 20 could deal a double blow to embattled Chancellor Friedrich Merz, two weeks after his party suffered a stunning defeat at the hands of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Tight races for power, each with their own unique electoral dynamics, are expected in the city-state of Berlin and the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
The AfD is expected to make strong gains in both, a fortnight after it trounced Merz’s center-right CDU by a margin of almost 44 to 17 percent in the ex-communist eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt.
The AfD triumph badly rattled Merz and fueled speculation that the 70-year-old leader, who took power in May last year, may not sit out the end of his four-year term as leader of Europe’s top economy.
Amid speculation about a potential change at the top, eight CDU state premiers closed ranks on Sept. 16 and declared jointly that Germany needs “stability now more than ever” rather than “discussions about personnel.”
Merz has vowed to reboot Germany’s flagging economy, rearm the country to deter a hostile Russia and contain irregular immigration to soothe voters’ fears and lure them away from the AfD.
Speaking at a campaign appearance in Berlin on Sept. 17, Merz touted improved growth forecasts despite the war in the Middle East as evidence the economy was slowly improving.
“We’re on the way out of crisis,” he said. “We’re on a rather good path. I say rather good, and not very good. There’s a lot still to do.”
But the AfD now leads nationwide polls, Merz’s personal approval ratings hover around 10 percent, and his coalition with the center-left SPD is increasingly torn by infighting.
In one election on Sept. 20, in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Merz’s party is an onlooker to the main battle between the SPD of popular state premier Manuela Schwesig and the AfD.
While the AfD was polling at 37 percent against the SPD’s 35 in the latest INSA survey, Merz’s CDU, at just 7 percent, may drop dangerously close to the 5-per cent hurdle needed to stay in the state parliament.
A CDU crash below that line would be a historic first and heap enormous pressure on Merz.
If the CDU “were indeed to fail to clear the 5-percent threshold, I consider it quite likely that Mr. Merz would be pressured by his party to step down,” said Ursula Muench of the Academy for Political Education in Tutzing.
“Barring such a drastic turning point, I do not foresee this happening for the time being.”
In Berlin, the ruling CDU is running a neck-and-neck race against the far-left Die Linke, which is popular with many young people and promises drastic steps to solve a dire housing crisis.
A CDU defeat in the capital would be another black eye for Merz.
The AfD is, meanwhile, expected also to do well in Berlin, although it is set to remain shut out of power in both states because all other main parties have agreed on a “firewall” of non-cooperation with it.
