A 30-year data analysis reveals that persistent drought has driven a sharp decline in Türkiye’s hydroelectric output, with average production at the Atatürk, Karakaya, and Keban dams dropping 29 percent over the last decade compared to the 1996–2005 period.
This shortfall has been compensated by gas generation, increasing reliance on energy imports, said London-based energy think tank Ember in its Türkiye Electricity Review 2026.
“As a result, drought leads to an average annual increase of $1.8 billion in fossil gas imports, rising further during energy crises and drier years,” it said, adding that supporting hydroelectric plants with hybrid solar installations is therefore crucial for supply security.
The report also highlighted that in Türkiye, electricity generation has shifted rapidly over the past three years, marked by accelerated growth in solar energy and record wind installations in 2025.
Wind and solar combined generated 22 percent of electricity in 2025, helping to limit the pressure on natural gas imports caused by drought-driven declines in hydroelectric generation, it noted.
Solar installations reached a record 4.8 GW in 2023, and new installations have remained close to this level over the past two years, according to the report. As a result, solar electricity generation has doubled in the last two years. Wind capacity additions hit a record 1.9 GW in 2025.
However, the report said, combined wind and solar additions of 6.5 GW still fall short of the 8 GW required annually to meet the 2035 target.
Since 2022, new wind and solar plants with storage must install battery capacity that equals their installed capacity, it said, noting that the total allocated battery capacity for these projects has reached 33 GW.
In comparison, EU countries with the largest battery capacity, including both operational capacity and project pipelines, have around 12-13 GW, less than half of Türkiye’s, it noted.
Türkiye’s battery project pipeline corresponds to 83 percent of its current wind and solar capacity (40 GW), said the report.
