While recent Middle East tensions have dampened international travel, booming domestic tourism is expected to offset the downturn, according to Firuz Bağlıkaya, the president of the Association of Turkish Travel Agencies (TÜRSAB).
Bağlıkaya noted that a decline is anticipated particularly in travel and bookings from Europe, adding that the scale of this slowdown will depend on the duration and course of the tensions in the Middle East.
He stressed that domestic tourism is expected to increase and said that weaker demand from the European market could lead to some easing in hotel, accommodation and travel prices. In turn, hotels are likely to try to fill any gaps through domestic demand, according to Bağlıkaya.
Bağlıkaya also said it would not be realistic to expect a significant influx of tourists from the Middle East and Iran in the near term, while adding that he does not foresee major problems in the Russian market.
He underlined that potential sectoral losses would be mitigated as much as possible through domestic tourism and alternative markets, adding that “2026 will be a season shaped by last-minute bookings. I do not expect a major overall loss for tourism. Any losses will be offset by alternative markets. However, it will be a season driven by last-minute reservations.”
Bağlıkaya added that although costs in Türkiye’s tourism sector have risen in foreign-currency terms, the country remains competitively priced compared to mass-tourism destinations such as the United Kingdom, Germany and Greece. He said rising prices are unlikely to deter visitors from choosing Türkiye.
Highlighting Türkiye’s broad tourism offering, from mountaineering and golf to skiing, seaside holidays, health and cultural tourism, Bağlıkaya said the country benefits from strong diversity.
However, he noted that continued tensions in the Middle East can still have negative spillover effects on tourism activity.
He also pointed to large-scale investments on the Mediterranean coast, by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, such as the NEOM project, warning that these developments could create serious long-term competition for Türkiye’s mass tourism sector and challenge its market share.
Turning to investment opportunities, Bağlıkaya said there is a lack of tourism infrastructure catering to more conservative travelers in Türkiye. He noted that this segment is largely limited to the province of Afyonkarahisar and that only a handful of seaside hotels target these visitors, often without fully suitable physical layouts despite offering appropriate services.
Stressing that this represents a significant gap given the size of the market, Bağlıkaya called for specific regulations in tourism planning and allocation processes to encourage investments tailored to conservative travelers. He said such a move could also attract substantial tourist flows from the Middle East.
