Let’s do some fortunetelling for 2013
I’ll do some fortune telling for 2013.
The one-and-a-half years ahead of us will be challenging for the prime minister.
Tension will rise as the presidential elections in 2014 approach. It seems that both the debates on expanding the president’s authorities and the competition between the candidates will be cutthroat. Finally, the winner will be Erdoğan, but there are many obstacles awaiting him.
Especially, the matter of authority will pose a problem. There is also an opposition group in the Justice and Development Party (AKP) itself. Probably they will give up the idea of introducing new authorities, and the president-to-be will have to consent to taking office in Çankaya only with a change that allows the president to be the leader of a political party.
Another disappointment will be experienced when it is seen that a new civil Constitution could not be written.. With this, the Turkish politicians will fail again. People mostly wonder who will be the Prime Minister after Erdoğan. Abdullah Gül or another name?
I guess we will not know the answer until the very last moment.
The PKK will resist
Contrary to many predictions, 2013 will be an active year in terms of the Kurdish issue.
There are considerably strong hints implying that the ruling party will take action, form various packages with new reforms, and improve the dialogue with İmralı for a solution to the problem. The Kurdistan Communities Union (KCK) operations will go on, the fight against terrorism will be intensified; however, some steps resembling the “Kurdish initiative,” will also be taken.
And the success of these steps will depend on the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party’s (PKK) approach.
The unknown dynamics in the Middle East are forcing the PKK to resist. Until the futures of Iraq, Iran and Syria become clear, the PKK will not negotiate. Not only that, it would do its best to prevent possible attempts to a solution.
Along with the PKK, the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) will also be prominent in next year’s agenda.
The debates on abolishing political immunities will increase the tension in following months. I think common sense will prevail on that matter.
Economy in trouble
I guess we will mostly talk about the economy in 2013.
The growth rates we experienced in previous years will vanish and we will go through quite a fluctuating and tough process. Ali Babacan put the brakes on in time but growth rates still decreased. And a decrease in growth rates would mean an increase in unemployment.
The most important achievement of the AKP government was the successful economic performance it displayed so far. They created an impression that made people say, “They are the ones who could allow me to prosper.” Now the situation is changing and the developments abroad have started to force us.
Crisis and danger of war in the Middle East
The thing I am most afraid of in 2013 is the possibility of a war that might erupt nearby us.
The confusion in Syria will go on, but I don’t expect a military intervention from the U.S. It seems al-Assad will maintain his rule .
An armed conflict between Syria and Turkey, on the other hand, is not very probable unless a provocation is made. However, the number of refugees coming from Syria will rise, leading Turkey to face many difficulties.
The other two dangers are Iran and Iraq.
Iran’s nuclear program will reach its last stage in 2013. However, Israel allowing that is quite out of the question. It is very probable that Israel will shoot Iran’s nuclear plants either by itself or with the U.S., and this would be more than enough for a conflict in the region.
The only way to get out of this vicious cycle is a joint solution offered by the U.S. and Russia.
In case Iraq is divided into three, or the tension between the autonomous Kurdish administration in Northern Iraq and the central government in Baghdad turns into a war, the country that receives the most harm will be us.
To sum up, in 2013, our region could turn into a field of fire in any case.
So, hard times are waiting for us.