Out-of-country votes to determine whether the HDP will pass the threshold
If the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) passes the threshold, all equilibriums will change. It is not difficult to calculate. If it passes the 10 percent threshold, it will gain 58-59 seats in the new layout.
Then, the number of deputies of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) will be 289, the
Republican People’s Party (CHP) 130 and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) 72. As you can imagine, this will mean a different Turkey.
Well, how realistic is it to think that the HDP will pass the threshold? Some surveys show the HDP as having 10.5 percent of the votes. Others say 9.5, 9.8 percent or 9 percent. We know from past experience that survey companies have a margin of error, around plus or minus 2 percent. In today’s layout, everything depends on that 2 percent.
Let us leave the surveys aside and count on arithmetic. Let us take the votes gained by Selahattin Demirtaş at the presidential elections as a basis and let us see whether the HDP passes the threshold or not.
As you can see first, the figure found is the one needed to pass the 10 percent threshold. According to the Supreme Election Board (YSK), the number of domestic voters is 53,765,231 and out-of-country voters total 2,867,658.
At this point, voter turnout is very important. In the presidential elections, domestic turnout was 77 percent and out-of-country turnout was 8 percent. If June 7 elections have exactly the same turnout, then the figure needed to pass the 10 percent threshold is 4,162,864.
If the domestic turnout is fixed at 77 percent and if the out-of-country voter turnout becomes 10 percent or 15 percent, what will happen? What if the domestic turnout is 80 percent or 83 percent? Then what is needed to overcome the threshold?
The table with all the probabilities discussed will help us understand better:
As you can see, different turnout rates in and out of the country create several different scenarios. When turnout increases, then the votes Demirtaş received at the presidential elections have a decreased rate compared to the whole. The Demirtaş votes correspond to about 7 percent of the domestic votes.
Let use try to incorporate the surveys here. Let us consider the HDP votes for specific percentages. For these probabilities, how many votes can the HDP gain from out-of-country voters?
- If the HDP receives 7 percent of the domestic votes, it has to collect between 1,264,918 and 1,381,769 votes outside the country.
- If the HDP receives 8 percent of the domestic votes, it has to collect between 850,926 and 935,518 votes outside the country.
- If the HDP receives 9 percent of the domestic votes, it has to collect between 436,934 and 489,266 votes outside the country.
- If the HDP receives 9.5 percent of the domestic votes, it has to collect between 229,937 and 266,141 votes outside the country.
- If the HDP receives 9.7 percent of the domestic votes, it has to collect between 147,139 and 176,890 votes outside the country.
- If the HDP receives 9.8 percent of the domestic votes, it has to collect between 105,740 and 132,265 votes outside the country.
- If the HDP receives 9.9 percent of the domestic votes, it has to collect between 64,340 and 87,640 votes outside the country.
Demirtaş received 22,582 out-of-country votes in the presidential elections. In this case, with the best possible scenario domestically (that is, receiving 9.9 percent of the votes), the HDP needs an extra 52,000 to 65,000 out-of-country votes. In the worst case scenario of receiving 7 percent of the domestic votes (remember that if Demirtaş votes remain constant and turnout increases, the votes will correspond to 7 percent) the HDP still needs 1,242,000 to 1,359,000 votes from outside the country.
If we disregard worst- and best-case scenarios, what will happen in the most probable scenario? The HDP will receive 9 to 9.5 percent of the votes. Then, it will need from 230,000 to 490,000 votes from outside the country. Will it be able to receive 250,000 to 500,000 votes from the 2.8 million out-of-country voters? We will see.
I can say this clearly: The outcome of the June 7 elections will be determined by out-of-country votes. And most probably, because the counting of out-of-country votes will not be completed – we will not know whether the HDP passes the threshold or not.
We will have a long and exciting night on election day. Save this piece.
P.S. I would like to thank Associate Professor Ozan Kalkan from Kentucky University Political Sciences Department for his immense help.