A future projection of Turkey’s foreign policy
Exactly two-and-a-half years ago, I wrote, “Your Syrian policy is wrong. As a result of this, our border region will turn into Peshawar.” Unfortunately, what I said came true. That place became such a center of atrocity that it makes al-Qaeda jealous.
Exactly one year ago, I wrote, “Do not waste time trying to train certain moderate people in Syria. They have no chance of success. Their weapons will go to [the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant] ISIL or al-Nusra.” Unfortunately, it came true. The first “train and equip” squad was ambushed, captured, some of them killed in Syria. The 30th division was not able to fire one shot at ISIL.
Exactly one-and-a-half years ago, I wrote, “Your Egypt policy is wrong; you will be left completely alone.” Unfortunately, this came true also. You will read U.S. President Barack Obama’s letter to Egyptian President Abdel el-Sisi in daily Hürriyet today.
This is not Turkey’s policy but it is the disaster created by an ambition who assumed himself powerful to do everything. Well, what will happen if this “historic delusion,” this disastrous policy does not change?
Here you go; I am writing that too. The way things stand, this will happen:
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will found a new country on the shore of the Mediterranean with those who support him.
Israel and the west will repair their relationship. It will solve problems with Lebanon and form good relations. There will be a Sunni-based formation at the Turkish border. This formation will soon transform into a new Afghanistan with radical Islam characteristics. Our border will be adjacent to this radical formation and Kurdish regions.
ISIL will not be ripped away from there easily and unfortunately we will come to that point where we will say, “We wish there were Kurds across our borders instead of these savage, beheading men.”
And Turkey will try to manage for at least 20 more years the issue of 2 million Syrians left on its soil and unfortunately it will not be able to.
Estimate, concern, warning
I wrote that the Saudi Arabian heir to the throne met with the intelligence chief of the al-Assad regime. This means Saudi Arabia has eliminated it as its first priority that the al-Assad regime be toppled.
Iran is the first priority of Saudi Arabia and as a precaution to that it is warming up relations with the Muslim Brotherhood organization.
My estimate is that this Sunni pact plan led by Saudi Arabia would thrill Ankara, which has based its entire diplomacy on Sunni and “Muslim fraternity” solidarity. This can also be interpreted that their policy has been accepted by others.
My concern is that this would be a huge and historic mistake. If Ankara is caught in this dream, then we should be prepared for much worse fiascoes and disappointments in the Middle East.
Turkey has one direction: The European Union. If you review the recent developments in the Middle East, you can understand that a horrible period has started where it is indefinite whose calculation will prove true in the Middle East.
Everybody who loves Turkey, loves his or her country, should know this very well: A Sunni-based venture in the Middle East can be our disaster.
My warning is that nobody has the right to blacken the future of our country with their unripe dreams, with their adoration for Muslim fraternity and with their global leadership dreams.