Over four years ago, Belarus’ authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko allowed longtime ally Russia to use his territory to invade Ukraine. Now officials in Kiev are warning that Lukashenko could again allow his land to serve as a launchpad for more attacks by the Kremlin’s forces.
While Belarus has not contributed troops to battle, Lukashenko has backed President Vladimir Putin’s war effort by hosting Russia’s nuclear weapons and military infrastructure, as well as producing components for Moscow’s military industries. Earlier this month, the countries held joint drills of nuclear forces involving Russian weapons deployed in Belarus.
Lukashenko, in power for over three decades, has ruled the nation of 9.5 million with an iron fist, relentlessly cracking down on dissent and relying on its close ties with Russia, as well as subsidies from the Kremlin’s coffers, to counteract repeated Western sanctions.
Military cooperation between Moscow and Minsk is increasingly worrying Ukraine’s allies.
When Putin began the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, Russian troops that gathered in Belarus under the guise of drills dashed toward Kiev, only about 90 kilometers south of the border.
Putin’s hope of capturing Kiev quickly was shattered by staunch Ukrainian resistance, and convoys of Russian tanks stretching along narrow roads became easy prey.
A little over a month after the invasion, Russian troops that suffered heavy losses and struggled to maintain their supply lines pulled back from Kiev and other areas they captured in northeastern Ukraine in what the Kremlin cast as a “goodwill gesture.”
As the conflict became a war of attrition, Belarus has played a key role in supporting Moscow’s war effort. Belarusian plants have produced important components, including microchips and other electronics, optical guidance systems, artillery munitions and heavy trucks that carry Russian ballistic missiles.
Belarus also provided training grounds for Moscow’s troops, hosted joint drills and offered its hospitals to treat wounded Russian soldiers.
Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his intelligence services had learned Moscow recently stepped-up efforts to “draw Belarus much deeper into the war and launch additional aggressive operations precisely from Belarusian territory.”
Lukashenko has denied any aggressive plans, declaring Belarus will not enter the conflict unless attacked.
Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s former defense minister and now secretary of its Security Council, also rejected Zelensky’s claim, describing it as a scare tactic to attract more Western aid for Kiev.
But in a sign of growing Western concern, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke to Lukashenko on May 24 to underscore the risks for Belarus of being dragged into the war, their first call since the invasion began. Lukashenko said that next week he will host a French envoy for talks on European security and prospects of easing EU sanctions.
Lukashenko is comfortable with Belarus’ position as a key supplier of military equipment and would strongly oppose direct involvement in the war, said Alexander Alesin, a Minsk-based military analyst.
“The last thing Lukashenko wants is to fight, and he’ll cling to his current position at any cost, so he can avoid fighting while profiting handsomely from the war,” he said.
