Market participants’ expectations for inflation at the end of 2026 remained broadly unchanged in October, while forecasts for inflation over the next 12 months edged higher, according to the Central Bank’s latest Survey of Market Participants.
The survey, which monitors the expectations of decision-makers and experts in the financial and real sectors regarding key economic indicators, showed that year-end consumer price inflation (CPI) expectations rose marginally to 29.63 percent from 29.61 percent in the previous survey period.
The 12-month-ahead inflation expectation increased to 23.89 percent from 23.70 percent, while the 24-month-ahead inflation forecast declined to 17.94 percent from 18.32 percent.
According to the survey, the Central Bank is expected to set its policy rate at 36 percent at the upcoming October Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
The survey showed little change in expectations for the Turkish Lira at the end of the year. The year-end exchange rate forecast for the U.S. dollar stood at 51.55 lira, compared with 51.57 lira in the previous survey.
However, the 12-month-ahead exchange rate expectation increased to 59.26 lira per dollar from 58.60 lira in the previous survey.
Participants forecast Türkiye’s gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by 2.9 percent in 2026, down from a previous estimate of 3 percent.
The GDP growth forecast for 2027 remained unchanged at 3.9 percent, according to the survey.
