The CHP’s coalition with the AKP, difficult but a must
Will there be a government soon? Most likely not. Bets on November repeat polls have opened in Ankara already but will that indeed be the case? Before rushing to conclusions perhaps, it is advisable to consider the pros and cons of each and every option. This writer is no exception and like the rest of the Muslim world Turkey is in the holiday mood but it appears the “interregnum” continuing since the June 7 evening will not end any time soon. Turkey cannot continue with a caretaker government. Will the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) continue playing the rescue rod for the Justice and Development Party (AKP) forever? Can the Republican People’s Party (CHP) forget about the sultan’s greed and enter with the AKP into a coalition bed full of thorns?
The heinous plan of the extravagant palace appears to be exhausting the 45-day period and all the options which could not be achieved and forcing the country go to a repeat poll in November. Yet, before making a “That’s it!” exclamation, hold your breath and consider what might be the alternative. Under article 114 of the constitution, if there is a repeat election decided by the president, within five days after such a decision is made an “election period transitional” premier must be appointed. That premier, excluding the justice, interior and communications ministers, must establish a government from ministers distributed according to the parliamentary strength of parties. If any party decides to stay away from that transitional government, its contingency of ministries will be filled by “independents” from within or outside parliament.
Thus, a repeat poll means elections without the AKP in government. However, if the AKP can make the parliament decide for an early election, than it can stay in office and continue extravagantly using all public coffers to finance its election campaign. Would the tenant of the extravagant palace decide for repeat elections or enroll onboard the MHP, for example, and take the early election decision in parliament? What will be the prime condition of taking such a road? Reducing the requirement of the minimum two-year service in parliament to get full lifetime pension to let’s say five months… That will be a good arrangement, would it not? The 2016 financial aid of the Treasury for political parties can be released as well this summer. If there is a will, there is a way! That way the AKP, heading an election coalition with the MHP, can stay on in power.
The AKP is betting on the assumption that the conservative electoral base saw the consequences of opting for the MHP while the pro-settlement electors realized the risk of voting for the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and in a November this year or March next year early election it may make a comeback strong enough to form a single party government.
Such a scenario, on the other hand, will be detrimental to Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu because the absolute-rule aspiring sultan might want to install in his place someone who might be more appealing for the electorate. Could that be Numan Kurtulmuş? There is such a rumor, I must say.
Thus, Davutoğlu establishing a coalition government might be an exercise between the devil and the deep blue sea. If he cannot form a coalition, he might go. If he establishes a coalition, he has to betray his master because in any coalition formula the prime condition is taming the tall, bold, bald and ever angry, absolute power hungry elected sultan. Neither the CHP, nor the MHP or even the HDP can agree to a sultan bossing people around.
Thus, an AKP-CHP coalition, which both the domestic and international capital are apparently demanding so enthusiastically, might be a good and last tool for Turkey’s restoration and also rescue the country from falling into the league of the Middle Eastern trivial dictatorships. Is it not sad that excluding Tehran, Turkey has no proper representation in its entire Middle Eastern and North African neighborhood? Even this fact alone demonstrates how badly Turkey and its foreign policy were governed over the past decade.
With or without an early election perspective, a strong AKP-CHP government might help Turkey restore its democratic governance, reinstitute distribution of powers, supremacy of law, improve the climate of freedom and return to normalcy its stinking foreign policy. In any case, Davutoğlu must be far better for everyone than the tall and angry sultan.
P.S. I wish all Muslim readers a happy holiday