Peace and serenity will mend our economy in 2018
You will come across many economic predictions and opinions for 2018. I, personally, expect peace and serenity to dominate the climate and give way to the economy itself.
Turkey’s growth figures made the social unease and conflicts look smaller than they were in 2017. But I also think that the reason why these figures did not receive as much celebration from the public was due to the conflicts and the unease themselves. Citizens of this country live in constantly growing worry and anxiety. Although they themselves were not subjected to unfair government treatment, someone they know has. Someone they know has been suspended from her or his job. Besides, the veil on those who have been living off corrupt money is coming off. People are becoming more aware of these corrupt authorities. A feeling of injustice has evoked even in those who are close to the central power. Injustice and the lack of peace and serenity are the reasons why people feel their lives are threatened and are leaving.
We know those who are leaving the country are the educated, creative and professional workers in each industry. Especially the progressive middle-sized companies tend to join this wagon as the experienced managers choose to go abroad, too.
The exodus of the middle-generation entrepreneurial professionals has an utterly significant impact on the future of Turkey, more so than it seems.
Besides, we also know that foreign companies are having a tough time assigning their better teams to Turkey. Of course, foreign businesses will maintain their presences here as long as they profit, however, as they were once seeking to invest in Turkey in this region, now they are seeking alternatives.
What caused this situation is the policy Turkey has followed in the last years, both domestic and foreign. An environment of growing conflict with the West, taking sides in regional conflicts, encouraging ethnic nationalism within borders, and the backtracks on Turkey’s human rights records, and the state of emergency have caused this unease to grow and the landslide of trust to fasten.
Turkey grew by a large percent in 2017. A high flow of hot money following the crisis atmosphere helped form a growth trend in the world. Turkey was part of that financial normalization period. Otherwise, such growth could not have been achieved. Credit guarantee funds (KGF) also helped the growth accelerate, however it is certain that this doping, too, will fade. Just the opposite, when it fades, the stream will flow downwards. The performance will be poorer.
To summarize, Turkey needs foreign resources coming in. Just to keep the wheels turning, Turkey needs over $120 billion in foreign resources in 2018, according to ministers. To keep the investments and the growth increasing, Turkey especially needs permanent foreign investments.
Turkey having powerful banks and a high entrepreneurial rate won’t suffice. To mobilize these, peace and serenity are needed.
Economic risks are there, and they can be overcome. However, the feeling that the risks will grow and worsen is growing among foreign and domestic investors.
Hopefully, 2018 will help reestablish peace and serenity in Turkey. Happy New Year.