China’s exports surged in September, putting the country on course to exceed last year’s record trade surplus as the United States and European Union press Beijing to rebalance trade.
Exports rose 36.3 percent from a year earlier, General Administration of Customs data showed on Oct. 14, well above the 25.7 percent forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Imports climbed 31 percent, leaving a monthly surplus of $133.5 billion.
That brought the January-September surplus to $938.1 billion, compared with a record $1.2 trillion for the whole of 2025.
Shipments to the U.S. rose 39.6 percent, compared with a low base last year when trade fell sharply as Washington and Beijing imposed steep tariffs on each other’s goods.
Exports to the EU increased 25.3 percent, while imports from the bloc barely changed.
EU officials have called the bloc’s trade deficit with China, which exceeds 1 billion euros a day, “unsustainable.”
Talks last week produced an initial agreement to curb Chinese hybrid vehicle exports to the EU, though analysts say these account for only a small share of bilateral trade.
Beijing is relying on exports to meet its annual growth target of 4.5 to 5 percent as domestic demand remains weak. Retail sales rose just 0.4 percent in August.
Separate data showed factory-gate prices rose 5 percent year-on-year in September, up from 3.8 percent in August and the fastest increase since June 2022, as the Middle East conflict drove up energy and commodity costs.
Consumer inflation remained subdued at 0.9 percent, compared with 0.8 percent in August, the National Bureau of Statistics said.
Capital Economics economist Nguyen Hoang Nam said electronics prices had also risen because of the global AI boom and memory chip shortages. But falling prices in other consumer goods suggested weak domestic demand continued to weigh on underlying inflation, he added.
The International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 growth forecast for China to 4.5 percent on Oct. 13. The economy grew 4.3 percent in the second quarter.
