Two-year rainfall deficit turns into chronic drought in Türkiye, expert warns

ISTANBUL

Türkiye is facing a deepening drought crisis as a two-year rainfall deficit has become chronic in several regions, a climate expert has warned.

Professor Mikdat Kadıoğlu, an academic at Istanbul Technical University, said recent data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service reveal a “multi-layered drought picture” across the country when analyzed over different time scales.

“Twenty-four-month data indicate extreme and severe drought conditions in parts of western and central Türkiye,” he said. “This shows that the rainfall deficit over the past two years has now become chronic.”

Kadıoğlu highlighted that the inner western region remains the most critical area for agricultural drought. Despite winter precipitation, the accumulated deficit has not been reversed.

A similar trend is observed in the Marmara region, where provinces such as Bursa, Bilecik, Bolu and Sakarya continue to show drought signals in both 12- and 24-month data.

In contrast, short-term data show significantly increased precipitation in eastern Türkiye. Areas stretching from Sivas to Hakkari are experiencing unusually high moisture levels.

While this benefits agriculture, Kadıoğlu warned it also increases the risk of floods and flash flooding. Southeastern provinces such as Diyarbakır, Şırnak, Siirt, Batman and Mardin have recorded above-average rainfall.

Similarly, the Eastern Black Sea region faces heightened landslide risks due to excessive soil moisture.

Although rainfall has increased in parts of the central region, particularly around Konya, Aksaray, and Nevşehir, this has not been enough to close the long-term gap, according to the expert.

In the Mediterranean coastal belt, including Mersin, Adana and Antalya, rainfall has recently returned to seasonal norms.

However, the cumulative deficit from previous years has yet to be fully resolved.

Prolonged drought is already affecting agricultural production and water reserves. Soil moisture levels have dropped significantly in key farming areas, raising the risk of lower crop yields.

Kadıoğlu also pointed out that hydrological drought — which affects reservoirs and groundwater — typically lags behind meteorological drought.

As a result, water storage levels in reservoirs and underground sources have not yet recovered in locations such as the Marmara and the inner eastern region.

“Major cities, especially Ankara, still face risks in terms of drinking water supply,” he said. “Drought is no longer just a meteorological issue — it has become an economic and social problem.”

Kadıoğlu stressed that temporary increases in rainfall are not enough to reverse long-term drought conditions.