Millions displaced in Iran as civilians grapple with war uncertainty

TEHRAN

Black smoke rises following an airstrike, as Iranians take part in the Al-Quds (Jerusalem) Day rally, a commemoration in support of the Palestinian people on the last Friday of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, in Tehran on March 13, 2026

More than 3 million people have been displaced in Iran since the United States and Israel launched a war against the country late last month, leaving many gripped by fear and uncertainty.

The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said on Feb. 12 that as many as 3.2 million people, representing between 600,000 and 1 million Iranian households, have been forcibly displaced since the war began on Feb. 28.

“This figure is likely to continue increasing as hostilities persist, marking a worrying escalation in humanitarian needs,” the agency said.

The war began on Feb. 28 with joint strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran and has since reverberated across the region, drawing in global powers and triggering a sharp oil market shock.

Iran’s Health Ministry said on March 8 that more than 1,200 people have been killed since the start of the war.

As the war concluded its second week on March 14, many Iranians said they were gripped by fear and uncertainty over how long the conflict might last and where it could lead.

Iranian state television broadcast images of large pro-government rallies in Tehran and other major cities marking Quds Day, the last Friday of Ramadan, with demonstrators expressing support for the Palestinian cause.

But interviews with residents suggested growing anxiety among civilians.

“We thought they would eliminate the senior leadership and the regime would collapse within days,” a resident of Tehran told the BBC. “But we are now in the second week, and every night I wake up to the sound of explosions.”

The woman said she had initially supported the war but was becoming increasingly frustrated as the conflict dragged on.

For some Iranians who oppose the country’s leadership, the war had initially raised hopes it might accelerate political change.

However, as the violence continues, many are beginning to question whether the human and economic costs of the conflict could ultimately outweigh any possible political outcome.

Others still argue that external military pressure may be the only realistic way to weaken the system.

Many Israeli and U.S. officials have framed the campaign primarily as an effort to degrade Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities.

However, some officials, including U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have hinted that the conflict could also lead to regime change.

Yet recent intelligence assessments cited by U.S. media suggest there are no clear signs that the Iranian government is close to collapsing, despite early expectations in Washington and Tel Aviv.

Iranians speaking anonymously to AFP described deteriorating living conditions as the war continues.

“People are desperately trying to withdraw their savings from the banks because trust in the financial system has vanished,” a 30-year-old woman in Kermanshah in western Iran said. “Bread is now rationed. The population is extremely tense and angry.”